Market Recap - Week of June 22 - 26, 2026 Plus: A Special Report on SpaceX
- Gordon Achtermann
- Jul 1
- 5 min read
Updated: Jul 1
Most weeks, I take a look at the past week and write about what’s happening in the market, along with key economic indicators and a chart of the week that takes a deeper dive into something you might not see elsewhere. I post the full reports to our blog.
This week is different.
Special Report - The Forced Buying of SpaceX
We have had several people ask how to avoid owning SpaceX (ticker symbol: SPCX). It's an unusual question, but word is getting around that, due to changes at NASDAQ and other indexes, the new index rules will automatically funnel tens of billions of dollars from passive funds into SpaceX shares without the usual waiting period, whether investors realize it or not, and whether they want it or not.
Political considerations aside (and as a proponent of values-based investing, there are MAJOR political (and non-political) considerations here), we note that while SPCX has a greater valuation multiple than any IPO in history, the free float* is the lowest of any IPO in history, and the shares offered have only 1/10th the voting power of the founder's shares. Any one of these 3 facts would be a red flag and stop me from purchasing SPCX. (Funny look at the scam.)
* Free float is the proportion of a company’s shares that are freely available for trading on the stock market, excluding restricted or locked-in shares held by insiders or major institutions. For SPCX, it is only ~4% (!)
Important: Switching your funds in a taxable account is a taxable event and may be costly. Please consult your financial or tax advisor, calculate the tax you would owe, and consider your options carefully before acting. As always, nothing in this note is investment, legal, or tax advice.
NASDAQ:
A revised Nasdaq methodology, effective May 1, 2026, allows any newly listed company ranked among the top 40 by market capitalization to enter the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 trading days, with the prior free-float requirement of 10% eliminated. That puts SpaceX into the index around July 6, triggering additional forced buying from:
Russell 1000:
Any funds based on the Russell 1000 Index now own SPCX. I don't believe I have ever recommended funds like that, but you can check what index your fund uses by going to your preferred search engine and typing "what index does [ticker symbol] track". If the result is Russell 1000, congratulations, you probably will own some SPCX if you don't already.
CRSP (Center for Research in Security Prices):
This index provider underpins many Vanguard funds, but only a few include SPCX.
Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) -- replace with VOOG - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth Index Fund
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) -- replace with ITOT - iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF.
Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VT) -- replace with SPGM - SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF
There are other Vanguard funds that might hold SPCX, but we won't know for sure (unless you call Vanguard, which is a solid option) because their website only lists their holdings at the end of every month. The good news is that CRSP is only considering the free float when determining how much SPCX to buy, so the allocation in those funds is far smaller than the huge implied market cap would suggest.
S&P 500 (all Dow Jones S&P indexes):
While there was early speculation about the S&P 500 fast-tracking inclusion, S&P Global announced it would maintain the current inclusion rules, which require profitability in the most recent quarter and in the last four quarters as a whole.
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Our Regular Update
The S&P 500 index fell 2% last week as US President Donald Trump said Iran violated the countries' ceasefire agreement.
The S&P 500 ended the week at 7,354.02. With just two trading sessions remaining in the month, the market benchmark is down 3% for June but up 7.4% for the year.
Questions swirling over the sustainability of the artificial intelligence boom also weighed.
The week's drop in the S&P 500 came on declines in only four of the index's 11 sectors: Communication services fell 6.2%, technology shed 5.4%, consumer discretionary slipped 2.7%, and materials declined 0.1%.
Google's parent, Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), was among the hardest-hit stocks in the communication services sector this week, falling more than 8%. A Bloomberg report said the company is poised to lose two leading AI researchers to Anthropic.
In technology, ON Semiconductor (ON) had the largest percentage drop of the week, sliding 25%. The chipmaker agreed to acquire semiconductor company Synaptics (SYNA) in a deal with an enterprise value of about $7 billion, aiming to expand into physical artificial intelligence.
In consumer discretionary, Nike (NKE) shares led the drop, falling 9.9% amid negative analyst reports.
On the upside, health care climbed 7.9%, followed by a 4% gain in real estate, a 3.9% advance in utilities, and a 1.5% increase in consumer staples. Energy, financials, and industrials also edged higher.
This week's economic data will feature the government's June employment report, due Thursday. The US stock market will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day.
Last Week’s Economic Reports
PCE (personal consumption expenditures - the Fed's preferred inflation measure) rose to 4.1% y/y in May, the highest since 2023.
New home sales fell to 580k SAAR* from 626k SAAR (Details)
* SAAR = Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Up Next
Nonfarm payrolls
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover)
Consumer confidence report
S&P 500 Stylebox and Sector Returns
Once again, I'll note that so far this year, value has outperformed growth across the board, and it's not even close for large or midsize companies.
How to read the stylebox: The horizontal axis represents investment style, which can be value, blend, or growth for stocks and mutual funds. The vertical axis represents stock market capitalization, categorized by company size as large, medium, and small. The number in each box represents the percentage growth of the category at the intersection of the column and row. For example, large-cap value is in the top-left corner box of the 9 boxes, so the large-cap value category is up (or down) by the percentage shown in that box.
Thank you to all who attended this month's market Update webinar!
You can watch the replay here:
The episode is also available wherever you listen to podcasts!
Want more?
You can always find our past Monthly Market Update webinars and latest YouTube videos here:
All the Best,
Gordon Achtermann, CFP®, CSRIC®, MBA
703-573-7325
Silverstone Financial
