Market Recap - Week of March 9 - 13, 2026

Gordon Achtermann
21 hours ago
4 min read

Updated: 2 hours ago

The S&P 500 index fell 1.6% this week, its third consecutive weekly decline, as oil prices continued to climb amid turmoil in the Middle East.

The S&P 500 ended the week at 6,632.19. It is now down 3.6% in March and has fallen 3.1% this year.

As the US-Iran war neared the two-week mark, most sectors of the S&P 500 fell.

The energy sector bucked the decline, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, reaching its highest settlement price since August 2022. The climb in crude oil futures came even as the US began allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian crude already at sea.

Adding to investors' concerns, government data showed Q4 gross domestic product was lower than previously estimated amid weaker consumer spending and a larger downturn in exports. The report showed US real gross domestic product grew at a 0.7% annualized rate in the December quarter; Wall Street expected growth to match the initial 1.4% estimate, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The financial sector had the largest percentage drop of the week, falling 3.4%, followed by a 3.2% loss in industrials and a 3% decline in consumer discretionary. Health care, materials, real estate, communication services, technology, and consumer staples also fell.

Economic data will include the February producer price index as well as February industrial production and pending home sales. Also, the Federal Open Market Committee will hold a two-day meeting concluding with a decision on interest rates.

Last (2) Week’s Economic Reports

Nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000
Retail sales were down -0.2% m/m
New car and light truck sales down 3.8%
Headline CPI up 2.4% y/y
Core CPI (excludes food and energy prices) up 2.5%
Headline PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation measure) up3.1%
Core PCE up 2.8%

Up Next

Economic data will include the February producer price index, February industrial production, and pending home sales. Also, the Federal Open Market Committee will hold a two-day meeting concluding with a decision on interest rates.

S&P 500 Stylebox and Sector Returns

So far in 2026, value is still the star of the US stock market.

How to read the stylebox: The horizontal axis represents investment style, which can be value, blend, or growth for stocks and mutual funds. The vertical axis represents market capitalization for stocks, categorized into large, medium, and small companies. The number in each box represents the percentage growth of the category at the intersection of the column and row. For example, large-cap value is in the top-left corner box of the 9 boxes, so the large-cap value category is up (or down) by the percentage shown in that box.

Thought of the Week

Global markets have been volatile in 2026, but few assets have been on as wild a ride as oil. Just last week, WTI crude oil traded in a $43 dollar range, reaching as high as ~$119 per barrel in intra-day trading and as low as ~$76 as the conflict in the Middle East continued to develop. Prices steadily climbed late in the week after an IEA decision to release 400 million barrels of oil failed to temper supply concerns, ultimately closing just below $99. On average, in March, oil prices are up over 30% m/m and 25% from their March 2025 average. If higher prices are sustained, there could be meaningful implications for inflation.

A simple regression on data back to the 80s suggests that every 10% y/y increase in the average price of oil boosts energy inflation by 2.7% in the following month. This increases headline inflation directly by 17 bps, after accounting for energy’s ~6.3% weight in the index. However, higher oil prices don’t only affect the energy bucket – they also feed through to other components, such as core goods and transportation services. A regression on headline CPI shows that a 10% y/y rise in oil prices more generally boosts headline inflation by 25 bps in the following month.

It is all but guaranteed that the FOMC will hold rates steady at this week’s meeting. But with upside inflation risks stemming from fiscal stimulus, tariff pass-through, and now the conflict in the Middle East, nearly 40 bps of 2026 rate cuts have been priced out of markets since the end of February. Inflation might fade later this year, but I suspect only if the economy slows or goes into recession. The Fed’s updated summary of economic projections this week should provide perspective on how recent events have changed its view of the world and the path forward for inflation.

Source: JP Morgan (edited)

Thank you to all who attended this month's market Update webinar!

You can watch the replay here:

Iran War Spikes Oil Prices & Netflix Ditches HBO Merger – Monthly Market Update Webinar – March 2026

The episode is also available wherever you listen to podcasts!