Market Recap - Week of April 13 - 17, 2026

Gordon Achtermann
6 days ago
3 min read

The S&P 500 index rose 4.5% this week to a record close as investors grew more optimistic about the situation in the Middle East after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open.

The S&P 500 ended the week at 7,126.06, its highest closing level ever. The market benchmark also reached a fresh intraday high on Friday of 7,147.52.

The weekly climb -- its third in a row -- moved the S&P 500 back into positive territory for the year to date. It is now up 4.1% for 2026 and 9.2% for April.

President Donald Trump said Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and won't receive any frozen funds from the US, Bloomberg reported. Trump said in a phone interview on Friday that a deal to end the war is mostly complete and talks on a lasting agreement will "probably" be held this weekend, according to a Bloomberg news report.

Earlier Friday, Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for the remainder of the US-Iran ceasefire period.

I am sorely disappointed in the media and the opposition party and, frankly, the investment community, that they somehow seem to believe anything that Trump says. His ability to manipulate the stock market is a black eye to the reputation of efficient markets theorists. This sums it up well for me: https://open.substack.com/pub/contrarian/p/words-and-phrases-560

Last Week’s Economic Reports

PPI, the inflation rate for producers of goods, rose 0.50% m/m (equates to 6.17% per year.
Industrial production contracted by the same 0.50% m/m
Taken together, that's stagflation - increasing prices with decreased production.
Last week, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, after rising 0.3 percent in February, a tremendous acceleration of inflation.
Payroll employment was up 178,000 in the March report, but real average hourly earnings decreased 0.6%.

Up Next

The US stock market will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday. The government's March employment report -- one of the most closely watched economic reports -- will still be released that morning.

S&P 500 Stylebox and Sector Returns

Once again, I'll note that so far this year, value has outperformed growth across the board, and it's not even close for large and midsize companies.

How to read the stylebox: The horizontal axis represents investment style, which can be value, blend, or growth for stocks and mutual funds. The vertical axis represents market capitalization for stocks, categorized into large, medium, and small companies. The number in each box represents the percentage growth of the category at the intersection of the column and row. For example, large-cap value is in the top-left corner box of the 9 boxes, so the large-cap value category is up (or down) by the percentage shown in that box.

Thought of the Week

Equity analysts usually start the year grumpy from the holiday hangover. Over the past 15 years, they’ve revised their EPS estimates down by an average of 2% between January and April. But, as this week’s chart shows, 2026 is a different story. Despite a more challenging macro backdrop, analysts have reversed course and revised their estimates up by 4%. AI, not an early bedtime, is behind this newfound optimism.

Tech companies have driven 84% of the upward revision, and they’re expected to contribute 67% of this year’s earnings growth, including 21% from Nvidia alone. Memory is the second largest contributor as the AI infrastructure frenzy continues to squeeze supply. On the other hand, estimates for the industrials and consumer sectors have edged lower as analysts factor in the drag from gasoline prices, which are up 32% since the start of the conflict. Airlines are facing higher fuel prices, and retailers could see softer demand. Still, gasoline accounts for just 3% of total expenditures, making it a painful but manageable hit for most consumers. Analysts also expect any weakness to be more than offset by the direct boost to the energy sector itself, which has driven 30% of the upward revision versus a combined -8% drag from the industrials and consumer sectors.

All in all, markets have set a very high bar for 2026 earnings. Even if estimates followed the average downward path from 2011 to 2025, EPS growth would still hit double digits. But, at elevated valuations, returns might not be as forgiving.

Source: JP Morgan (edited)

Thank you to all who attended this month's market Update webinar!

You can watch the replay here:

Markets Fall & Gas Prices Rise As Iran War Rages On – Monthly Market Update Webinar – April 2026

The episode is also available wherever you listen to podcasts!